Public track record
What the model said, what the price did
Five names each night. The headline follows the 10-day tape until it goes silent or flips, net of costs, next to SPY over the same days. One-year valuation is a different clock. Measurement of the published direction only, not advice.
Net of 8 basis points round-trip, 4 bp if the tape is still open. Total return: adjusted close, so dividends and splits. Signal path from 17 August 2026: earlier nights are not in the database. Only the five published names each night, not the book of 6,000+. Falling out of the daily five is not an exit. No new entry without a new publication.
5
equal weight -0.0% · SPY 0.0% · -0.0% vs SPY

follow -0.0%hold 0.0%SPY 0.0%
then 7538.0 → now 7538.0
tape: still in

follow -0.0%hold 0.0%SPY 0.0%
then 7598.0 → now 7598.0
tape: still in

follow -0.0%hold 0.0%SPY 0.0%
then 68.59 → now 68.59
tape: still in

follow -0.0%hold 0.0%SPY 0.0%
then 92.09 → now 92.09
tape: still in

follow -0.0%hold 0.0%SPY 0.0%
then 18.03 → now 18.03
tape: still in
5
equal weight +0.5% · SPY 0.0% · +0.5% vs SPY

follow +1.9%hold +1.9%SPY 0.0%
then 5944.0 → now 6058.0 · same direction
tape: still in

follow -0.0%hold 0.0%SPY 0.0%
then 43.94 → now 43.94
tape: still in

follow -0.0%hold 0.0%SPY 0.0%
then 222.1 → now 222.1
tape: still in

follow +0.7%hold +0.7%SPY 0.0%
then 26.37 → now 26.56 · same direction
tape: still in

follow -0.0%hold 0.0%SPY 0.0%
then 33.17 → now 33.17
tape: still in
5
equal weight -0.0% · SPY +0.7% · -0.7% vs SPY

follow +1.6%hold +1.6%SPY +0.7%
then 4344.0 → now 4414.0 · same direction
tape: still in

follow +2.4%hold +2.4%SPY +0.7%
then 1603.5 → now 1642.0 · same direction
tape: still in

follow +1.2%hold +1.3%SPY +0.7%
then 54.49 → now 55.17 · same direction
tape: still in

follow -2.9%hold +2.9%SPY +0.7%
then 1138.8 → now 1171.2 · other direction
tape: still in

follow -2.4%hold -2.4%SPY +0.7%
then 274.2 → now 267.8 · other direction
tape: still in
5
equal weight +2.4% · SPY +0.5% · +1.8% vs SPY

follow +4.7%hold +4.7%SPY +0.7%
then 3728.0 → now 3904.0 · same direction
tape: still in

follow +2.3%hold +2.4%SPY +0.7%
then 4718.0 → now 4830.0 · same direction
tape: still in

follow +1.7%hold +1.7%SPY +0.7%
then 23.06 → now 23.46 · same direction
tape: still in

follow -0.1%hold -0.3%SPY 0.0%
then 1068.0 → now 1064.8 · other direction
tape: out

follow +3.1%hold +3.2%SPY +0.7%
then 42.58 → now 43.92 · same direction
tape: still in
5
equal weight +1.1% · SPY +0.8% · +0.3% vs SPY

follow +0.4%hold +0.5%SPY +1.0%
then 10345.0 → now 10395.0 · same direction
tape: still in

follow +4.2%hold +4.3%SPY +1.0%
then 1786.5 → now 1863.0 · same direction
tape: still in

follow -0.5%hold -0.4%SPY +1.0%
then 369.8 → now 368.3 · other direction
tape: still in

follow -0.1%hold +0.7%SPY 0.0%
then 4382.0 → now 4414.0 · same direction
tape: out

follow +1.4%hold +1.4%SPY +1.0%
then 107.8 → now 109.4 · same direction
tape: still in
5
equal weight +3.1% · SPY +0.7% · +2.4% vs SPY

follow -1.5%hold -1.5%SPY +0.7%
then 2406.5 → now 2370.5 · other direction
tape: still in

follow +0.4%hold +0.4%SPY +0.7%
then 11475.0 → now 11525.0 · same direction
tape: still in

follow +4.3%hold +4.3%SPY +0.7%
then 3085.0 → now 3218.0 · same direction
tape: still in

follow +0.3%hold +0.4%SPY +0.7%
then 5713.0 → now 5735.0 · same direction
tape: still in

follow +11.9%hold +11.9%SPY +0.7%
then 1010.0 → now 1130.7 · same direction
tape: still in
5
equal weight +0.2% · SPY +0.3% · -0.1% vs SPY

follow +0.2%hold +0.3%SPY 0.0%
then 5.58 → now 5.59 · same direction
tape: out

follow +3.5%hold -1.7%SPY 0.0%
then 37.32 → now 36.68 · other direction
tape: out

follow -2.4%hold -2.3%SPY +0.7%
then 120.8 → now 118.0 · other direction
tape: still in

follow -1.3%hold -0.2%SPY 0.0%
then 37.59 → now 37.53
tape: out

follow +0.8%hold +0.8%SPY +0.7%
then 95.37 → now 96.18 · same direction
tape: still in
5
equal weight -0.8% · SPY +0.7% · -1.5% vs SPY

follow +1.7%hold +1.7%SPY +0.7%
then 40.38 → now 41.08 · same direction
tape: still in

follow -1.6%hold -1.5%SPY +0.7%
then 33.85 → now 33.34 · other direction
tape: still in

follow -5.0%hold -4.9%SPY +0.7%
then 54.37 → now 51.69 · other direction
tape: still in

follow -2.5%hold -2.5%SPY +0.7%
then 66.82 → now 65.18 · other direction
tape: still in

follow +3.1%hold +3.2%SPY +0.7%
then 44.29 → now 45.70 · same direction
tape: still in
7
equal weight -0.4% · SPY +0.8% · -1.2% vs SPY

follow -2.1%hold -2.1%SPY +1.1%
then 125.0 → now 122.4 · other direction
tape: still in
follow +2.5%hold +2.5%SPY +1.1%
then 78.52 → now 80.49 · same direction
tape: still in

follow +0.2%hold -1.8%SPY +0.4%
then 30.94 → now 30.40 · other direction
tape: reversed

follow -0.1%hold +0.7%SPY 0.0%
then 171.2 → now 172.3 · same direction
tape: out

follow -1.2%hold -1.1%SPY +1.1%
then 120.9 → now 119.6 · other direction
tape: reversed
follow -0.3%hold -0.3%SPY +1.1%
then 2565.0 → now 2557.2 · other direction
tape: still in

follow -1.6%hold -1.6%SPY +1.1%
then 74.93 → now 73.75 · other direction
tape: still in
9
equal weight +1.3% · SPY +0.3% · +1.0% vs SPY

follow +3.7%hold +3.7%SPY +0.3%
then 77.59 → now 80.49 · same direction
tape: still in

follow -2.0%hold -2.0%SPY +0.3%
then 44.83 → now 43.94 · other direction
tape: still in

follow -3.7%hold -3.7%SPY +0.3%
then 94.32 → now 90.86 · other direction
tape: still in

follow +4.3%hold +4.4%SPY +0.3%
then 3085.0 → now 3220.0 · same direction
tape: still in

follow -3.5%hold -3.5%SPY +0.3%
then 61.21 → now 59.09 · other direction
tape: still in

follow +5.2%hold +5.3%SPY +0.3%
then 38.76 → now 40.80 · same direction
tape: still in

follow -0.9%hold -0.9%SPY +0.3%
then 2580.0 → now 2557.2 · other direction
tape: still in

follow +3.7%hold -3.7%SPY +0.3%
then 73.27 → now 70.55 · same direction
tape: still in

follow +4.5%hold +4.6%SPY +0.3%
then 33.46 → now 34.99 · same direction
tape: still in
5
equal weight -2.1% · SPY +0.5% · -2.6% vs SPY

follow -9.5%hold -9.4%SPY +0.5%
then 1135000.0 → now 1028000.0 · other direction
tape: still in

follow -7.2%hold -7.1%SPY +0.5%
then 49.90 → now 46.34 · other direction
tape: still in

follow +2.9%hold +3.0%SPY +0.5%
then 83.71 → now 86.18 · same direction
tape: still in

follow +2.5%hold +2.5%SPY +0.5%
then 2972.0 → now 3046.0 · same direction
tape: still in

follow +0.5%hold +0.6%SPY +0.5%
then 13.68 → now 13.76 · same direction
tape: still in
5
equal weight -3.1% · SPY -0.2% · -2.9% vs SPY

follow -6.0%hold -5.9%SPY -0.2%
then 19.56 → now 18.40 · other direction
tape: still in

follow +4.2%hold -4.3%SPY -0.2%
then 25.30 → now 24.22 · same direction
tape: still in

follow -15.5%hold -15.5%SPY -0.2%
then 185.5 → now 156.8 · other direction
tape: still in

follow -2.6%hold -2.6%SPY -0.2%
then 228.2 → now 222.3 · other direction
tape: still in

follow +4.5%hold +4.5%SPY -0.2%
then 22.18 → now 23.18 · same direction
tape: still in
5
equal weight +5.2% · SPY -0.8% · +6.0% vs SPY

fair value vs price -34.8%hold +1.3%
then 134.0 → now 135.8
no 10-day tape

follow +2.8%hold +2.9%SPY -1.3%
then 18.14 → now 18.66 · same direction
tape: still in

follow -0.1%hold +17.2%SPY -0.5%
then 158.3 → now 185.6 · same direction
tape: reversed

fair value vs price -49.2%hold -3.0%
then 119.5 → now 116.0
no 10-day tape

follow +12.7%hold +12.7%SPY -0.7%
then 6.36 → now 7.17 · same direction
tape: still in
5
equal weight -0.1% · SPY -0.8% · +0.8% vs SPY

follow -0.1%hold -1.1%SPY -0.5%
then 1325.0 → now 1310.7 · other direction
tape: reversed

fair value vs price +2.4%hold -2.3%
then 190.5 → now 186.1
no 10-day tape

follow -1.9%hold -1.9%SPY -0.7%
then 27.06 → now 26.55 · other direction
tape: still in

follow +1.8%hold +1.9%SPY -1.3%
then 32.85 → now 33.46 · same direction
tape: still in

fair value vs price -67.2%hold +2.4%
then 29.75 → now 30.46
no 10-day tape
5
equal weight +4.9% · SPY -0.5% · +5.4% vs SPY

follow +10.3%hold +10.4%SPY -0.7%
then 525.0 → now 579.4 · same direction
tape: still in

fair value vs price -30.2%hold -1.3%
then 75.98 → now 75.03
no 10-day tape

fair value vs price -49.9%hold -0.4%
then 110.4 → now 110.0
no 10-day tape

follow +4.9%hold +47.7%SPY -0.5%
then 93.04 → now 137.4 · same direction
tape: reversed

follow -0.7%hold -3.6%SPY -0.5%
then 76.04 → now 73.33 · other direction
tape: reversed
5
equal weight +0.7% · SPY -0.8% · +1.5% vs SPY

fair value vs price -35.0%hold -3.5%
then 65.97 → now 63.66
no 10-day tape

fair value vs price -62.2%hold +0.2%
then 140.8 → now 141.1
no 10-day tape

follow +3.9%hold +3.9%SPY -0.9%
then 58.86 → now 61.16 · same direction
tape: still in

follow -2.0%hold +6.3%SPY -0.7%
then 397.5 → now 422.7 · same direction
tape: reversed

follow +0.2%hold +0.3%SPY -0.9%
then 267.1 → now 267.8 · same direction
tape: still in
5
equal weight +6.5% · SPY -0.2% · +6.7% vs SPY

follow +0.7%hold +0.7%SPY -0.2%
then 255.8 → now 257.6 · same direction
tape: still in

follow +17.4%hold +17.4%SPY -0.2%
then 33.59 → now 39.44 · same direction
tape: still in

fair value vs price -52.8%hold +4.1%
then 19.89 → now 20.70
no 10-day tape

fair value vs price -60.5%hold -2.1%
then 38.48 → now 37.66
no 10-day tape

follow +1.5%hold +1.6%SPY -0.2%
then 91.61 → now 93.04 · same direction
tape: still in
5
equal weight +4.0% · SPY -0.0% · +4.0% vs SPY

follow +17.7%hold +17.7%SPY +0.1%
then 15.06 → now 17.73 · same direction
tape: still in

follow -3.9%hold +1.9%SPY +0.3%
then 104.8 → now 106.9 · same direction
tape: reversed

follow -1.8%hold +0.9%SPY -0.4%
then 39.52 → now 39.87 · same direction
tape: reversed

fair value vs price +5.2%hold -5.4%
then 41.80 → now 39.55
no 10-day tape

fair value vs price +20.5%hold +1.5%
then 144.1 → now 146.2
no 10-day tape
5
equal weight -1.6% · SPY -0.2% · -1.4% vs SPY

follow -2.7%hold -2.7%SPY -0.3%
then 65.49 → now 63.73 · other direction
tape: still in

fair value vs price -61.4%hold -1.7%
then 198.9 → now 195.5
no 10-day tape

follow -3.8%hold -3.8%SPY -0.3%
then 31.39 → now 30.21 · other direction
tape: still in

fair value vs price -27.6%hold +2.0%
then 18.82 → now 19.20
no 10-day tape

follow +1.9%hold +7.6%SPY -0.1%
then 31.43 → now 33.81 · same direction
tape: reversed
5
equal weight -3.4% · SPY -0.1% · -3.3% vs SPY

fair value vs price -59.6%hold +2.9%
then 100.1 → now 103.0
no 10-day tape

follow -2.1%hold -5.5%SPY -0.1%
then 46.30 → now 43.74 · other direction
tape: reversed

fair value vs price -71.8%hold -7.3%
then 5.88 → now 5.45
no 10-day tape

follow -4.7%hold -4.6%SPY -0.3%
then 19.03 → now 18.15 · other direction
tape: still in

follow -3.4%hold +5.3%SPY -0.1%
then 151.0 → now 158.9 · same direction
tape: reversed
5
equal weight +2.6% · SPY -0.5% · +3.1% vs SPY

follow +6.2%hold +6.3%SPY -0.3%
then 24.79 → now 26.34 · same direction
tape: still in
T0 precogs missing

fair value vs price +64.4%hold +2.3%
then 139.3 → now 142.6
no 10-day tape
T0 precogs missing

fair value vs price +56.6%hold -0.4%
then 31.48 → now 31.34
no 10-day tape
T0 precogs missing

follow +1.2%hold +1.2%SPY -0.3%
then 83.64 → now 84.65 · same direction
tape: still in
T0 precogs missing

follow +0.5%hold +0.5%SPY -0.9%
then 33.44 → now 33.61 · same direction
tape: still in
T0 precogs missing
5
equal weight +1.4% · SPY -0.7% · +2.1% vs SPY

follow -2.6%hold -9.7%SPY -0.8%
then 132.8 → now 120.0 · other direction
tape: reversed
T0 precogs missing

fair value vs price +43.5%hold +0.4%
then 69.71 → now 69.97
no 10-day tape
T0 precogs missing

follow +7.4%hold +7.4%SPY -0.3%
then 206.8 → now 222.1 · same direction
tape: still in
T0 precogs missing

follow -0.4%hold -0.8%SPY -1.0%
then 130.5 → now 129.6 · other direction
tape: reversed
T0 precogs missing

fair value vs price -30.0%hold -3.1%
then 38.26 → now 37.08
no 10-day tape
T0 precogs missing
5
equal weight +0.6% · SPY +0.3% · +0.3% vs SPY
follow -4.5%hold -4.5%SPY +0.3%
then 54.16 → now 51.74 · other direction
tape: still in
T0 precogs missing
fair value vs price +15.7%hold -0.9%
then 30.63 → now 30.36
no 10-day tape
T0 precogs missing
hold +24.3%
then 47.49 → now 59.03
no 10-day tape
T0 precogs missing
follow +6.1%hold +6.1%SPY +0.3%
then 881.5 → now 935.4 · same direction
tape: still in
T0 precogs missing
follow +0.3%hold +0.3%SPY +0.3%
then 259.2 → now 260.1 · same direction
tape: still in
T0 precogs missing
This measures published model directions, not investment advice. Naia and Scarlett drive the 10-day tape. Luna and Vera drive the 1-year valuation. One P&L for both is a category error. Sideline is not a short.